Actually, not like gun laws because we don’t ban “scary looking” models of vehicles. In generally we don’t even ban provably deadlier models or limit their usage based on need. Any idiot can buy a jacked-up F150 and drive it on any public road.

Don’t treat this kind of projection as remotely reliable at the riding level, it doesn’t actually tell you anything about what’s happening in your locality.

338Canada’s record has been pretty darn good. Saying, “it doesn’t tell you anything” is downplaying not only their historical accuracy, but also the effort they put into their methodology.

They aren’t perfect. For example, I lived in Kitchener Centre where the Greens were out of 338Canada’s MOE 2 elections in a row, but on the whole, they’ve been pretty accurate.

Also the 2024 election.

Almost all of the polls were within the MOE. The polls said it was a toss up, and it was.

Also the bc provincial election last year. Pretty sure the last federal election polls Also were wrong.

The results for both of these were very close to what the polls predicted. Not sure why you felt they were off?

Polls are instantly biased by the type of people that answer polls, or the audience that the polls are based on.

Very true, which is the job of pollsters to adjust for. And, as I’ve said, I think they are pretty good at their jobs.

I keep hearing statements like this, but they’re not backed up by data. Polls are rarely “wrong” and aggregators such as 338Canada do a pretty good job of predicting local races. While there are are some historically bad misses (many pollsters for the 2016 US Presidential Election), IMHO the biggest issues is people not understanding what polls actually mean, and the media doing a terrible job of explaining them.

You assumed by, “save you a click,” they’d read and summarized the article? No, they are such a big brain, they know everything without even having to read the article!